Senior Manager, Demand Forecasting
Are you looking for a patient-focused, innovation-driven company that will inspire you and empower you to shine? Join us as a Senior Manager, Demand Forecasting.
At Takeda, we are transforming the pharmaceutical industry through our R&D-driven market leadership and being a values-led company. To do this, we empower our people to realize their potential through life-changing work. Certified as a Global Top Employer, we offer stimulating careers, encourage innovation, and strive for excellence in everything we do. We foster an inclusive, collaborative workplace, in which our global teams are united by an unwavering commitment to deliver Better Health and a Brighter Future to people around the world.
Here, you will be a vital contributor to our inspiring, bold mission.
- Manages the development of forecasts in-line, near-term pipeline, and business development opportunities for products in assigned therapeutic areas in the US.
- Serves as core member of the cross-functional team accountable for developing organizational forecasts.
- Manages all aspects of demand forecast creation including analytics, project planning, meeting management, and presentation of analysis.
- Leverages knowledge of a broad range of forecasting approaches, deep therapeutic areas knowledge, and understanding of corporate / brand strategy to develop forecasts that support annual, mid-range, and long-range planning; mid-year forecast updates; and assessment of lifecycle management and business development opportunities in designated therapeutic area and/or disease state.
- Leader within the forecasting function.
- Implements novel forecast approaches, and leads team in adoption of techniques.
- Leads team in planning and execution of operational processes (e.g. annual planning, mid-year updates, etc.).
- May manage employees, contractors, or suppliers as therapeutic area needs dictate.
- Develops an understanding in other forecast-related functions (e.g., pricing, FP&A) to provide better deliverables.
- Executes development of demand in-line forecasts for assigned therapeutic areas in support of standard business processes (quarterly updates, annual plans, mid/long-range plans), as well as lifecycle management initiatives for brand.
- Influences and advises cross-functional teams on key questions and necessary analytics to help develop deeper understanding of market and brand utilization performance along with potential risks and opportunities.
- Leads cross-functional teams (e.g. FP&A, C&P, Managed Markets, Competitive Intelligence, Decision Science, Marketing/Sales Analytics, Planning, and Brand) to develop required forecast inputs, document assumptions, create analytical demand forecasts, and advise senior brand and organizational leadership of strategic implications of forecast outcomes.
- Teaches others to facilitate productive and meaningful meetings, seeks participation and gains commitment from partners.
- Leads by example on enterprise thinking by providing meaningful contributions to meetings outside of demand-forecasting, ability to challenge the status quo.
- Anticipates and prepares for questions from leadership in thoughtful way.
- Instills confidence in cross-functional team on demand forecasting and performance diagnosis through transparent thinking, analysis, and presentations.
- Provides consultative forecasting perspective on Managed Care business cases.
- Represents the cross-functional forecasting team in discussions with senior executives in forecast development. Develops an understanding in other forecast-related functions (e.g., pricing, FP&A) to provide better deliverables and communications.
- Independently prepares and delivers presentations with meaningful forecast implications, actionable insights, and recommendations to senior executive leadership. Clearly articulates pros and cons of different options to facilitate strategic decision making. Leverages broad market knowledge to partner with senior team in developing organizational strategy.
- Delivers high-impact, well-thought out presentations leveraging analytics and supporting data to establish forecasting story.
- Ability to pressure-test forecasts and thinking as external viewer leveraging a variety of data sets to explain forecasting story.
- Ability to influence others and gain agreement on forecasting assumptions.
- Provides ongoing updates to organizational leadership on brand performance against forecasts and KPIs, offering insights about performance and forecast implications. Leverages deep market expertise to provide recommendations on strategies / tactics to enhance brand performance.
- Is a subject matter expert in forecasting with deep expertise in assigned markets, and working knowledge of all organizational therapeutic areas. Viewed as subject matter expert within forecasting group.
- Leads the team in continuous improvement of forecasting to enhance quality and accuracy.
- Defines and implements forecasting team processes to enhance consistency and efficiency.
- Recommends and utilizes appropriate quantitative analytical approaches including optimization, regression, and Monte Carlo simulation to meet specific/unique brand forecasting needs.
- Leads the development of novel forecast approaches to enhance forecast quality and establish best practices and leads team in adoption of techniques.
- When outsourcing is appropriate, identifies, engages, and manages vendors on analytic plans, analytical methodologies, and production of deliverables.
- Participates in the recruiting efforts for new analysts by evaluating potential for success within Finance and sharing feedback with hiring team.
- Leads the team in developing deep understanding multiple therapeutic areas (outside of marketed space) including current and future market trends, and adds significant insights into future market direction.
- Leads the forecasting and commercial assessments for business development opportunities for late-stage assets for the US BU, in designated disease states including but not limited to the ability to:
- Influence and partner with market research and New Product Planning to design qualitative and quantitative market research (either internal or external consultants).
- Translate market research studies into logical forecast assumptions which leads to the development of sales forecasts, including overstatement, managed care, and/or awareness factors.
- Analyze secondary data to provide market insights inform forecast and required promotional spend.
- Triangulate various data sets to provide a cohesive understanding of the forecast risks and opportunities.
- With cross-functional team, establish pricing implications to forecast for WAC price and gross-to-net assumptions.
- Partners with new product planning to establish commercial assessment.
- Establishes and maintains key relationships with a broad range of internal key stakeholders. Regularly interacts with executives, managers, and cross-functional teams in identifying and assessing, recommending, and gaining endorsement for potential new business opportunities.
EDUCATION, EXPERIENCE AND SKILLS:
- BA or BS in an analytical field such as statistics, operations research, management science, industrial engineering, economics, math, etc. and 8+ years quantitative analytical or forecasting experience; or advanced degree in an analytical field such as statistics, operations research, management science, industrial engineering, economics, math, etc. and 6+ years of quantitative analytical or forecasting experience
- 5+ years pharmaceutical analytics experience.
- Complete understanding and application of quantitative principles, concepts, practices, and standards surrounding the use and manipulation of secondary market data sources.
- Extensive knowledge of forecasting principles, practices, and tools.
- Extensive knowledge of pharmaceutical industry practices.
- Demonstrated understanding of analytics, business modeling and basic valuation concepts (NPV, ROI, IRR).
- Project planning and management skills.
- Advanced Excel modeling skills.
- Excellent communication and presentation skills.
- Basic people and team management skills including measuring and delivering performance feedback.
- Resource Management; ability to manage internal and external resources (people, information, technologies, time, and capital); allocates resources appropriately, given organization, group and individual goals and objectives to align with business goals.
- Proficient in one or more of MS Office, MS Access, VBA, SPSS, or SAS programming.
- Willingness to travel to various meetings and conferences, including overnight trips. Some international travel may be required.
WHAT TAKEDA CAN OFFER YOU:
- 401(k) with company match and Annual Retirement Contribution Plan
- Tuition reimbursement Company match of charitable contributions
- Health & Wellness programs including onsite flu shots and health screenings
- Generous time off for vacation and the option to purchase additional vacation days
- Community Outreach Programs
Empowering Our People to Shine
Discover more at takedajobs.com
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